By: Jordanian writer Adnan Al-Rousan
The strike targeting the east-west line, or the Saudi “Petrol Line,” yesterday, which extends from the east of the kingdom, in the BQIQ area, to its western coasts on the Red Sea, constituted a major surprise on various levels and directions.
The line runs through Saudi territory and has a capacity of about seven million barrels of oil per day, making its targeting a significant challenge for the Saudi government, given its strategic importance in the Saudi oil export system.
Initially, the Saudis believed that the strike came from Yemen, but Americans, according to their intelligence sources, along with other regional information, suggested that the attack came from Iraq. However, unusually, no party claimed responsibility for the operation.
The Iraqi government, for its part, did not deny that Iraqi territory was the launch point for the projectiles that hit the line and called on Saudi Arabia to exercise caution before taking any reaction towards Iraqi territory. Indeed, Saudi Arabia announced that it would remain calm and measured before taking any ill-considered decisions.
The important question here is: who benefits from escalating the situation, straining relations with Saudi Arabia, and trying to drag it into direct involvement in the war through military action?
Iran... Is it in its interest to escalate?
Iran? I don’t think it prefers this kind of action, at least not at this moment.
Just two days ago, Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif was holding phone consultations with his Saudi counterpart Faisal bin Farhan. Therefore, we cannot easily assume, based on our understanding of Iranian diplomacy, that it stands behind this operation.
So, who is it?
Do you remember that a few weeks ago, Iraq talked about discovering foreign bases on its territory, which were claimed to be secret Israeli military bases operating logistics to fuel the conflict in the region? According to what was said at the time, this matter is not a secret and has been officially raised in Iraq.
So, could it be that the ones who launched the drones from Iraq at the Saudi pipeline are the Israeli Mossad, aiming to open a new front between Iraq and Saudi Arabia, so that matters later develop into a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia?
Our accumulated experiences and our reading of the history of Zionist actions in the region have taught us not to dismiss the possibility that Israel is behind any action of this kind.
The Americans and Israelis, despite all that Saudi Arabia has provided to the United States, are dissatisfied with Riyadh's refusal to directly enter the war with its forces, at least to create a political cover that would contribute to legitimizing the war.
Saudi Arabia is an ally of the United States and hosts American military bases, and this is no secret. However, it expected in return that the U.S. would provide a protective umbrella for it, shielding it from any strikes coming from any direction.
However, the aggressive war that the U.S. waged against Iran came, according to what is circulated, without coordinating with Saudi Arabia, and without prior notification of the attack. Then, the United States was unable to protect Saudi airspace and oil waterways, and today it is unable to identify the entity that carried out the bombing against the Saudi east-west oil line.
Saudi Arabia faces a very complex situation
Today, Saudi Arabia finds itself in a very complex situation. In Yemen, the Houthis are advancing and controlling Bab al-Mandab and Mocha and Al-Hudaydah on the western coast of Yemen, overlooking the Red Sea. There are many leaks about an Arab state helping the Houthis with intelligence to confront Saudi Arabia, without identifying the identity of that state.
On the other hand, there is American reluctance to assist Saudi Arabia in Yemen and American pressure to push Riyadh to fight Iran by proxy on behalf of the United States.
On a third side, it has become clear that the “Makkah Alliance” is purely defensive and does not rise to the level of a complete mutual defense agreement, as evidenced by the lack of support from alliance parties alongside Saudi Arabia in its operations in Yemen.
In the geopolitical reality of the region, Saudi Arabia is a state of utmost importance; in terms of the extent of its vast continental area, the length of its coastlines, and its status as the largest, richest, and most powerful state in the Arab Gulf region, in addition to the depth of its relations with various countries around the world.
There is a whispering in media circles close to Western intelligence gatherings that the Saudis have grown weary of the positions and policies of America and Israel, and that they no longer trust the American ally, who publicly favors the Israeli ally and declares in front of all that he is the only loyal ally of America, while the rest are mere arms of it.
Contrary to what many think, the Saudis are not satisfied with the American-Israeli war on Iran, and they do not want Iran as an enemy; geography does not allow for that. Iran will remain as long as the world exists, while the Americans will leave, sooner or later, without a doubt.
The question that arises now is: Could Saudi Arabia be in the process of fundamentally reevaluating its relationship with the United States and Israel? And could we witness a sudden Saudi turnaround, or what might be described as a “turning of the back,” in light of the rapidly evolving developments in the region?
It may be too early to provide a definitive answer to this question, but the political and field indicators deserve monitoring and consideration, especially in light of the increasing pressures facing Riyadh, changing regional and international calculations, and declining confidence in the American ally's ability to provide the protection that Saudi Arabia expects.
The discussion is long, and we will go into detail in the field and political data at another time, God willing.